When the time is right

Just retired and want to drawdown on a lifetime of investment? I feel sorry for you because there was almost nothing you could do. A couple of years ago, or down the line, and you’d have been fine, but if you need the cash today…

On the flip side, those who hope to have a couple of decades of investing to come are in a much more fortunate position. I’m positively excited about the markets today, because they’re stuffed with risk, and opportunity.

Back in 2006, it was almost impossible to find company valuations that displayed any upside, most were grossly overvalued already. I was constantly frustrated for investment ideas. The bear market should have started right there, but we staggered on covered in bandages.

The recession is progressing well, and the markets are awash with value for the long term investor. I’ve always ignored analyst earnings forecasts, preferring as always to make my own decisions on the balance sheet, which probably explains why those same valuations are looking quite different now.

But markets could, and probably will, fall even lower. So we’re back to timing again! No, decide what you think is good value and take the plunge when you see it. Waiting for a falling price to bottom out before buying is pointless: you’ll probably be wrong and also miss it on the way up. And if you’re taking a long term position? You could do worst than average your way in over the next couple of years.