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	<title>Conceptric &#187; learning</title>
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	<link>http://www.conceptric.co.uk</link>
	<description>Ideas and Applications</description>
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		<title>When to save your money</title>
		<link>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/when-to-save-your-money.htm</link>
		<comments>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/when-to-save-your-money.htm#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2009 19:55:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Whinfrey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Everything]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[portfolio]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.conceptric.co.uk/?p=177</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Long term investing requires commitment to both the current holding and the regular addition of new cash. But when to raise, hold or fold?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I regularly add cash to my portfolio, personal finances permitting, but injecting cash at the top of the market is not a good feeling. Sometimes it&#8217;s unavoidable, but when fundamental valuations across the market start to look stretched, it&#8217;s time to start stockpiling this cash elsewhere.</p>

<p>During the last bull market, some geographical regions, such as emerging Europe and Russia, accelerated well ahead of the rest, I failed to diligently rebalance and paid the price. I&#8217;d have more money to reinvest now if I&#8217;d thought about it.</p>

<p>Whilst rebalancing these runaway sectors, I&#8217;ll give closer consideration to reducing my whole portfolio, maintaining the target allocation of course. Liberating cash in this way is something large fund managers can rarely do, so I intend to use this advantage next time round.</p>

<p>Clearly, not all corrections are going to be as drastic as the Credit Crisis, but for those lesser moves I&#8217;d aim to stay fully invested. None the less, rebalancing out performing investments and holding back new cash may be appropriate.</p>

<p>I hope that reducing holdings, along with the stockpiling of new cash, will enable me to capitalise on future bear markets.</p>
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		<title>A trade or an investment?</title>
		<link>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/a-trade-or-an-investment.htm</link>
		<comments>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/a-trade-or-an-investment.htm#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 10:42:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Whinfrey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Everything]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mistakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.conceptric.co.uk/?p=169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Invest or trade, both have their place in a good strategy, but don't get trapped in the middle.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The majority of my investing is for the long term, in my case a 10 year horizon, but in the current climate, short term trading also makes sense: the large swings in the pricing of good quality stocks and indices can yield strong returns.</p>

<p>I recently heard the founder of CMC Markets commenting, and I paraphrase, that traders call a bad trade an investment. At the heights of the last bull market, when M&amp;A action was all that was sustaining prices, I have to admit that I nearly fell into this trap.</p>

<p>Whilst I feel that I&#8217;m confessing a sin: admitting to buying on market rumours, I avoided compounding the error by convincing myself that the stock would still be good value for the long term. It wouldn&#8217;t, the price was inflated, the fundamentals I ignored made that clear, and it was very unlikely to ever be worth what I paid for it.</p>

<p>Trading and investing are not the same thing, and require different strategies. Timing is important for a trade, as is close observation and the use of stop losses. An investment must represent reasonable fundamental value to be worth buying, so the precise dynamic of the current market doesn&#8217;t matter as much.</p>

<p>In future I&#8217;ll decide, in advance, whether I&#8217;m trading or investing.</p>
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		<title>Learning from the Credit Crisis</title>
		<link>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/learning-from-the-credit-crisis.htm</link>
		<comments>http://www.conceptric.co.uk/learning-from-the-credit-crisis.htm#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 14:46:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Whinfrey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Everything]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.conceptric.co.uk/?p=165</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've been looking back on the effects of the Credit Crisis on my investments. I'm going to write a series of posts on this topic, but first a little background.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The basis of my approach to investment is asset allocation coupled with fundamental valuation: choosing a diverse spread of assets and a price at which I&#8217;ll buy them.</p>

<p>This combination sounds a little contradictory, since asset allocation is the response to the perceived impossibility of deciding on price in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street">a random walk down Wall Street</a>: you can&#8217;t consistently outperform the market.</p>

<p>Whilst I don&#8217;t entirely subscribe to this sentiment, I believe it has good applications at the core of a portfolio comprised of these asset classes.</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Equity</em> based mutual funds, diversified both by size and geographic region.</li>
<li><em>Commodities</em> based on <a href="http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/about/etfs_about_etcs.asp"><abbr title="Exchange Traded Commodities">ETCs</abbr></a>.</li>
<li>Geographically diverse <em>corporate and government debt</em>.</li>
<li>Mutual funds directly invested in <em>commercial property</em>. If asset diversity is the goal, investing in property stocks doesn&#8217;t really cut it, they&#8217;re still equities.</li>
</ul>

<p>This core represents about 80% of my portfolio, and I use fundamental analysis, alongside the actual asset distribution, as a method of timing my rebalancing and adding cash into the portfolio.</p>

<p>Fundamentals are key to actively managing the remaining 20% of my portfolio, which is mostly invested in UK equities, in the form of individual company stock, and both long and short index tracking <abbr title="Exchange Traded Funds">ETFs</abbr>.</p>

<p>This strategy remains unaffected by the Credit Crisis, but my execution has changed in two main respects; <a href="http://www.conceptric.co.uk/a-trade-or-an-investment.htm">being honest with myself about objectives</a>, and active use of cash within the portfolio. These will be the subjects for a couple of future posts.</p>
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